Market Context
In 2025, the Asia-US shipping route experienced an early peak season, followed by a rapid cooldown. Freight rates surged as bookings concentrated early, but analysts expect a prolonged trough due to uncertain demand recovery.
Causes of the “Early Peak – Long Trough”
- Unstable US consumer demand
- High retailer inventory levels
- Excess vessel capacity and slots
- Insufficient blank sailings
- Early booking psychology
Risks for Vietnamese Exporters
Exporters risk:
- Unpredictable freight fluctuations
- Short-term space shortages
- Higher peak season surcharges
- Delayed deliveries
Proactive Solutions
To mitigate risks, companies should:
✅ Split bookings by week
✅ Sign flexible freight agreements
✅ Work with reliable freight forwarders
✅ Add extra lead time buffers
✅ Diversify trade lanes and transshipment ports
✅ Track container availability closely
Long-Term Trends to Watch
- US green logistics policies
- Supply chain shift away from China
- Rising East Coast port traffic
- Long-term contracts with volatility clauses
Opportunities for Vietnamese Companies
- Better negotiation leverage
- Benefit from lower freight levels
- Win clients when competitors delay shipments
- Optimize supply chain efficiency
Conclusion
2025 brings heavy volatility to the Trans-Pacific trade. Vietnamese exporters must adopt flexible transport strategies, manage bookings proactively, and capitalize on low-rate periods to stay competitive.
Source: Vietnam Logistics Renew
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