Late November 2025 data from WorldACD shows global air freight rates at US$2.68/kg, up 1% despite a 3% drop in chargeable volume — indicating capacity tightness as shippers scramble for space.
The global air cargo market is experiencing a curious paradox in the 2025 year-end peak season. According to WorldACD — based on over 500,000 weekly transactions — global air freight rates rose by 1% in the two-week period ending November 23, 2025, reaching US$2.68/kg, while chargeable weight declined by 3%.
Such a disconnect—higher rates amid falling volumes—suggests that air cargo capacity is under significant strain, forcing shippers to accept higher pricing to secure cargo space. Global load factors in November reached 63%, the highest in over 30 months.
Regional Divergence
- Africa saw the strongest rate performance: a 12% YoY increase, despite only ~1% volume growth.
- Middle East & South Asia (MESA): rates rose ~9% YoY while chargeable volume plunged ~19% over two weeks.
- North & Latin America recorded a modest ~4% increase in rates.
- In Asia-Pacific & Europe, rates dipped ~1%, though Asia-Pacific still maintained modest volume growth.
Southeast Asia & Asia-Pacific Trends
Southeast Asian origins — including Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore — saw robust volume growth between 30% and 52% YoY on trans-Pacific lanes. Meanwhile, traditional hubs in Northeast Asia (China, Hong Kong, South Korea) experienced volume declines, reflecting a shift in trade patterns.
On the China–US trade lane, spot rates reached US$5.59/kg in early November — the highest in 2025, highlighting peak-season pressure, although still below the 2024 high of US$5.90/kg.
Capacity Constraints & 2026 Outlook
- Air cargo capacity remains tight. Airlines prioritizing passenger flights has squeezed “belly-hold” capacity, while delays in delivery of new freighters coupled with retirement of older ones exacerbate load constraints.
- Forecasts for 2026 suggest a modest global air-cargo demand growth of 4%–6%, well below the double-digit growth seen in 2024 — driven by changing trade policies, production shifts, and consumer spending adjustments globally.
Source: Phaata (World ACD)
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